Better Predict Leadership Potential Using 2 Key Indicators

Effective Leaders Are Rare: How to Better Predict Leadership Potential
Being an effective leader is far from simple. For anyone who has worked under a bad manager, the statistics are all too familiar.

• According to Forbes, 82% of employees do not trust their boss to be honest.
• The Wall Street Journal reports that more than half of employees leave their jobs because of their manager.
• Meanwhile, research from the International Association of Applied Psychology finds that up to 60% of leaders behave destructively, costing companies millions each year.

The challenge goes beyond identifying bad leaders — predicting who will become an effective leader is even more difficult. Organizations that rely on intuition rather than data often miss opportunities to cultivate high-potential talent and, in turn, sustain long-term success.

The Truth About Being Able to Predict Leadership Potential

Corporate culture assessment research shows that when organizations try to predict leadership potential, they often stumble. Some fall prey to unconscious bias, others rely too heavily on stand-alone personality assessments, and many lack the comparative data needed to accurately identify, select, and develop future leaders.

While certain broad leadership personality traits can support leadership success, the reality is that some individuals are far better positioned to thrive in your organization’s unique environment.

One of the strongest predictors of leadership potential is the speed with which employees advance into more strategic roles — a metric we call Career Advancement. Research shows that Career Advancement is a stronger indicator of future leadership success than either job performance or employee engagement. Within this framework, two specific predictors stand out as the most powerful when combined:

1. Learning Orientation
   Learning orientation reflects an individual’s mindset and approach to growth. Those with a high learning orientation are naturally curious, embrace change, tackle problems with enthusiasm, and pursue continuous improvement with a deliberate, methodical approach. In contrast, low scorers often resist new ideas and struggle to adapt or learn effectively.
   
   
2. Learning Aptitude
   Learning aptitude measures an individual’s natural capacity to acquire and apply knowledge. High scorers quickly recognize patterns, absorb new information, and translate it effectively into on-the-job performance. Those with lower scores often require more time to process information and develop new skills, making rapid adaptation more challenging.

Not only does the combination of Learning Orientation and Learning Aptitude accurately predict Career Advancement, but it also predicts stronger performance and higher levels of employee engagement.

The Bottom Line
When it comes to hiring, promoting, or reviewing leadership talent, relying on intuition alone is risky. Using a research-backed Leadership Simulation Assessment or People Manager Assessment Center provides a more precise measure of leadership readiness, performance, potential, skill gaps, and bench strength for critical roles. Leveraging these tools allows organizations to make smarter decisions and significantly improve their ability to identify, develop, and support high-potential leaders.

To learn more about what it takes to be a great leader, download 8 Reasons Why Leaders Need 360 Feedback

by Tristam Brown: CEO

Tristam Brown is an executive business consultant and organizational development expert with more than three decades of experience helping organizations accelerate performance, build high-impact teams, and turn strategy into execution. As CEO of LSA Global, he works with leaders to get and stay aligned™ through research-backed strategy, culture, and talent solutions that produce measurable, business-critical results. See full bio.